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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201106
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 20 Oct 2019 15:24:42 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201146
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla, located about a hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this
system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward at 5
to 10 mph during the next couple of days.  This system is expected
to move into the central Pacific basin by tonight or early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Priscilla are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories on
Priscilla are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS
header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Priscilla (EP4/EP192019)

...PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
 As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 20
 the center of Priscilla was located near 18.1, -104.0
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Priscilla Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 104.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla
was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 104.0 West.
Priscilla is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast
track, the center of Priscilla will approach the southwestern coast
of Mexico within the warning area later today, and move inland by
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Priscilla moves inland.
Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 201439
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019
1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 104.2W...NEAR MEXICAN COAST
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 104.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 201440
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Deep convection, with some overshooting cloud tops to -90 deg C, has
continued to develop and expand since the previous advisory. Most of
the convective cloud mass has been displaced into the western
semicircle due to modest easterly to southeasterly vertical wind
shear. However, the cold cloud canopy has expanded eastward over the
center during the past couple of hours, suggesting that the cyclone
is becoming better organized and has also strengthened. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind data that
showed 32-33 kt in the southwestern quadrant, along with the much-
improved satellite signature since the time of the ASCAT passes. The
35-kt intensity is also supported by recent satellite intensity
estimates of T2.5/35 kt and T2.3/33 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT,
respectively. Thus, the cyclone was upgraded to Tropical Storm
Priscilla at 1200 UTC.

Priscilla is moving a little west of due north or 355/6 kt. The
small cyclone is expected to move generally northward around the
western extent of a deep-layer ridge that is oriented east-to-west
across the Bay of Campeche and south-central Mexico. This slow
motion should bring the center of Priscilla inland over southwestern
Mexico late this afternoon or early evening. The latest NHC model
guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so no
significant changes to the previous track forecast were required.

Priscilla will be moving over SSTs in excess of 29 deg C and into an
upper-level environment of gradually decreasing shear, so some
additional slight strengthening will be possible before landfall
occurs in about 12 hours. However, the peak intensity likely will
not be much higher than 40 kt. After moving inland, Priscilla will
rapidly weaken and dissipate due to the rugged mountainous terrain
of southwestern Mexico.

The primary threat with Tropical Storm Priscilla will be heavy
rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 18.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 19.0N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR MEXICAN COAST
 24H  21/1200Z 19.7N 104.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Priscilla Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 201439
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  5   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MANZANILLO     34 10   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Priscilla Graphics

Tropical Storm Priscilla 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 14:41:45 GMT

Tropical Storm Priscilla 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 15:24:28 GMT