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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

254 
ABNT20 KNHC 051739
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft mission this morning indicate that the 
broad area of low pressure located over the far southeastern 
Caribbean Sea does not have a well-defined center.  Although the 
system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over 
the southern Windward Islands and adjacent waters, satellite and 
radar imagery from Barbados show that it is not well organized.  
The system is forecast to move generally westward near the northern 
coast of South America, and interaction with land is likely to 
hinder significant development during the next day or so.  After 
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form within the next two to three days when the system is over the 
south-central Caribbean Sea.  

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the 
ABC Islands during the next day or two.  Interests in those 
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue 
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be 
found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under 
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Depression Twelve (AT2/AL122022)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 5
 the center of Twelve was located near 16.3, -32.4
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Twelve Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 052035
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 32.4W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 32.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a remnant low on Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 052033
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122022
2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  32.4W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  32.4W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  32.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N  33.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.2N  35.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N  37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  32.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 052036
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022
 
Deep convection had been stripped away well to the northeast of the 
depression's low-level center for much of the morning. Just 
recently, there has been a small burst of convection occurring 
nearer to the center. The Dvorak intensity estimates have changed 
little from the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial advisory 
remains 30 kt. Persistent, strong southwesterly shear and dry air 
entrainment should cause the depression to struggle to maintain 
organized deep convection, and the system is forecast to become a 
remnant low on Thursday. Based on some of the global model pressure 
fields, it is possible that the surface low may become ill-defined 
by Thursday as well, if not shortly thereafter. There was no change 
to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous one. 

After wobbling westward for a few hours this morning, the depression 
has resumed a west-northwestward motion, or 300/9 kt. This general 
motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in a 
couple of days as it remains to the south-southwest of a subtropical 
ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was little changed from the 
previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 16.3N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 17.1N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 18.2N  35.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 19.0N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Depression Twelve Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 052035
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122022               
2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Depression Twelve Graphics

Tropical Depression Twelve 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 20:36:09 GMT

Tropical Depression Twelve 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 21:23:20 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

169 
ABPZ20 KNHC 051736
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Paine, located several hundred miles southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine (EP2/EP172022)

...PAINE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 5
 the center of Paine was located near 18.3, -114.8
 with movement WNW at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 052041
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022
 
...PAINE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 114.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine
was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h).  A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over 
the next day or so. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected 
to dissipate within a couple of days. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Paine.  For additional information on the remnant low 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 052040
TCMEP2
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172022
2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.4N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 114.8W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON PAINE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW 
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 052043
TCDEP2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022
 
Paine has been devoid of organized deep convection for about
18 hours, and it now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds.  Therefore, the system no longer meets the definition
of a tropical cyclone, and the system has become post-tropical.
The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is based on
recent ASCAT data.  Strong shear and less favorable thermodynamic
conditions are expected to cause additional weakening over the next
day or so.  The global model guidance indicates that the remnant low
will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.
 
Now that Paine has become vertically shallow, it has turned
west-northwestward.  A continued slow west-northwestward to westward
motion within the low-level flow should continue until dissipation
occurs.  The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward
and it lies along the southern side of the guidance envelope.
 
This is the last NHC forecast advisory on Paine.  For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 18.3N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  06/0600Z 18.4N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1800Z 18.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 18.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 052041
PWSEP2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172022               
2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  7   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 21:06:59 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 21:07:00 GMT